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Crystal ball is still murky, but hints appear
The Columbus Dispatch
February 19, 2006
By Joe Hallett
Make way, Carnac, for the seer of election 2006. The Republican and Democratic tickets are three days old, and the Nov. 7 general election is 261 days away. It's insane to make predictions this far out. But there is white space to fill and a dreaded deadline at the doorstep. Don't take this column to the bank . . . Governor's race U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland effectively has a free pass to the Democratic nomination. Too bad. Strickland, who has never run statewide, needed a strong challenge to hone his message and organization. But now he won't have to serve raw meat to party liberals, and he will hoard gobs of cash for TV spots in the fall. The drama that drained from the Democratic race will be made up on the Republican side. Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell and Attorney General Jim Petro have been hissing at each other for weeks, and by the May 2 primary, they'll be bloody and broke. Blackwell and Petro are sprinting to the extreme right. Blackwell will win that race. Evangelical Christians are the bedrock of his support. Are they enough in a GOP primary? Are there enough moderates left in a primary for a Petro win? Probably not. Can the winner credibly tack his way toward the political center to win the general election? That will be difficult. Blackwell likely won't even try. His appeal is that he's an antiestablishment Republican who won't compromise his principles. • Primary election: advantage Blackwell. • General election: advantage Strickland. U . S . Senate Democratic U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown vs. incumbent Republican Mike DeWine is a national main event. DeWine seeks re-election in a poisonous political atmosphere for Republicans. Scandals in Washington and Columbus, a war gone wrong and wacky Bush budgets have voters in a throw-the-bums-out mood. DeWine has shown an independent streak with his votes against oil drilling in the Alaskan refuge and his membership in the Gang of 14, moderate Republicans and Democrats who worked to avoid filibustering Bush's Supreme Court nominees. Republicans will do to Brown what they did to Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts in the 2004 presidential race — parse his voting record to paint him as a wild-eyed liberal. But DeWine also has a long voting record. • General election: slight advantage DeWine. Attorney general Democrat Subodh Chandra, the former Cleveland law director, is smart, creative and entertaining. But his ballot name is, to be charitable, a problem. State Sen. Marc Dann of the Warren area has used GOP scandals to make a name for himself. Republican state Sen. Timothy Grendell of Chesterland is challenging state Auditor Betty D. Montgomery, arguably Ohio's most popular GOP politician. • Primary election: advantage Dann and Montgomery. • General election: strong advantage Montgomery. Auditor Mahoning County Treasurer John Reardon and former state Rep. Barbara Sykes of Akron battle for the Democratic nomination to face Republican state Rep. Mary Taylor, a certified public accountant. • Primary election: advantage Sykes. • General election: advantage Taylor. Secretary of state Franklin County Recorder Robert G. Montgomery, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Greg Hartmann and state Rep. Jim Trakas of Cleveland vie for the GOP nomination. Montgomery's surname is potent, but Hartmann has more money and a strong team. None of the Republicans has Democrat Jennifer L. Brunner's fire in the belly or experience. She gave up a Franklin County judgeship to run and formerly served as legal counsel in the secretary of state's office. • Primary election: advantage Hartmann. • General election: advantage Brunner. Treasurer Good Democratic primary race between Franklin County Treasurer Richard Cordray and Montgomery County Treasurer Hugh Quill. Cordray will have more money and party support. Incumbent Republican Jennette Bradley will be endorsed by the state GOP against challenger Sandra O'Brien, the Ashtabula County auditor. Bradley's fund raising has been anemic. • Primary election: advantage Cordray and Bradley. • General election: slight advantage Cordray.
